Search results for "Binomial distribution"
showing 10 items of 28 documents
Aggregation patterns of helminth populations in the introduced fish, Liza haematocheilus (Teleostei: Mugilidae): disentangling host–parasite relation…
2018
International audience; A number of hypotheses exist to explain aggregated distributions, but they have seldom been used to investigate differences in parasite spatial distribution between native and introduced hosts. We applied two aggregation models, the negative binomial distribution and Taylor's power law, to study the aggregation patterns of helminth populations from Liza haematocheilus across its native (Sea of Japan) and introduced (Sea of Azov) distribution ranges. In accordance with the enemy release hypothesis, we predicted that parasite populations in the introduced host range would be less aggregated than in the native host area, because aggregation is tightly constrained by abu…
Spatial analysis of traffic accidents near and between road intersections in a directed linear network.
2019
Although most of the literature on traffic safety analysis has been developed over areal zones, there is a growing interest in using the specific road structure of the region under investigation, which is known as a linear network in the field of spatial statistics. The use of linear networks entails several technical complications, ranging from the accurate location of traffic accidents to the definition of covariates at a spatial micro-level. Therefore, the primary goal of this study was to display a detailed analysis of a dataset of traffic accidents recorded in Valencia (Spain), which were located into a linear network representing more than 30 km of urban road structure corresponding t…
On the Irrelevance of Expected Stock Returns in the Pricing of Options in the Binomial Model: A Pedagogical Note
2005
The option pricing theory is now either a standard or a main part of many financial courses on both intermediate and advanced levels. All the textbooks that include the option pricing theory present a detailed treatment of the binomial model. However, the binomial model, although quite simple and intuitive in appearance, is rather tricky when it comes to its practical implementations and applications. In fact, it is amazing that the students often get totally confused when it finally comes to the issue of the choice of the parameters of the binomial model. The reason for all this confusion lies in the fact that all the textbooks emphasize the irrelevance of the binomial option price from th…
Bayesian hypothesis testing: A reference approach
2002
Summary For any probability model M={p(x|θ, ω), θeΘ, ωeΩ} assumed to describe the probabilistic behaviour of data xeX, it is argued that testing whether or not the available data are compatible with the hypothesis H0={θ=θ0} is best considered as a formal decision problem on whether to use (a0), or not to use (a0), the simpler probability model (or null model) M0={p(x|θ0, ω), ωeΩ}, where the loss difference L(a0, θ, ω) –L(a0, θ, ω) is proportional to the amount of information δ(θ0, ω), which would be lost if the simplified model M0 were used as a proxy for the assumed model M. For any prior distribution π(θ, ω), the appropriate normative solution is obtained by rejecting the null model M0 wh…
The Random-Time Binomial Model
1999
In this paper we study Binomial Models with random time steps. We explain, how calculating values for European and American Call and Put options is straightforward for the Random-Time Binomial Model. We present the conditions to ensure weak-convergence to the Black-Scholes setup and convergence of the values for European and American put options. Differently to the CRR-model the convergence behaviour is extremely smooth in our model. By using extrapolation we therefore achieve order of convergence two. This way it is an efficient tool for pricing purposes in the Black-Scholes setup, since the CRR model and its extrapolations typically achieve order one. Moreover our model allows in a straig…
Handling Underdispersion in Calibrating Safety Performance Function at Urban, Four-Leg, Signalized Intersections
2011
Poisson basic assumption of equidispersion is often too much restrictive for crash count data; in fact this type of data has been found to often exhibit overdispersion. Underdispersion has been less commonly observed, and this is the reason why it has been less convenient to model directly than overdispersion. Overdispersion and underdispersion are not the only issues that can be a potential source of error in specifying statistical models and that can lead to biased crash-frequency predictions; these issues can derive from data properties (temporal and spatial correlation, time-varying explanatory variables, etc.) or from methodological approach (omitted variables, functional form selectio…
KFAS : Exponential Family State Space Models in R
2017
State space modelling is an efficient and flexible method for statistical inference of a broad class of time series and other data. This paper describes an R package KFAS for state space modelling with the observations from an exponential family, namely Gaussian, Poisson, binomial, negative binomial and gamma distributions. After introducing the basic theory behind Gaussian and non-Gaussian state space models, an illustrative example of Poisson time series forecasting is provided. Finally, a comparison to alternative R packages suitable for non-Gaussian time series modelling is presented.
Understanding german fdi in latin america and asia: a comparison of glm estimators
2020
The growth of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in developing countries over the last decade has attracted an intense academic and policy-oriented interest for its determinants. Despite the gravity model being considered a useful tool to approximate bilateral FDI flows, the literature has seen a growing debate in relation to its econometric specification, so that which is the best estimator for the gravity equation is far from conclusive. This paper examines the determinants of German outward FDI in Latin America and Asia for the period 1996-2012 by evaluating the performance of alternative Generalized Linear Model (GLM) estimators. Our findings indicate that Negative Binomial Pseudo Maximum …
Stochastic discretized learning-based weak estimation: a novel estimation method for non-stationary environments
2016
The task of designing estimators that are able to track time-varying distributions has found promising applications in many real-life problems.Existing approaches resort to sliding windows that track changes by discarding old observations. In this paper, we report a novel estimator referred to as the Stochastic Discretized Weak Estimator (SDWE), that is based on the principles of discretized Learning Automata (LA). In brief, the estimator is able to estimate the parameters of a time varying binomial distribution using finite memory. The estimator tracks changes in the distribution by operating a controlled random walk in a discretized probability space. The steps of the estimator are discre…
Assessment of Susceptibility Risk Factors for ADHD in Imaging Genetic Studies
2019
Objective: ADHD consists of a count of symptoms that often presents heterogeneity due to overdispersion and excess of zeros. Statistical inference is usually based on a dichotomous outcome that is underpowered. The main goal of this study was to determine a suited probability distribution to analyze ADHD symptoms in Imaging Genetic studies. Method: We used two independent population samples of children to evaluate the consistency of the standard probability distributions based on count data for describing ADHD symptoms. Results: We showed that the zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) distribution provided the best power for modeling ADHD symptoms. ZINB reveals a genetic variant, rs273342…